Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $264,184$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(673 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,585,432.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 159.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,585,432.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,971$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(60.2 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,899.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 96.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,899.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $132,498$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,968$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(503 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,167.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,167.8\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $223$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,158$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,838.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103,838.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,769$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(91.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,553.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $53,513$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(94.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,820.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,820.2\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.37 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(128.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,971$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(302 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,114.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,114.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $189$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(11.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{491.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(491.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,167$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,623$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,392.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,392.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(0.268 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $856$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,275$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(38.8 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,753.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,753.1\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $147$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 73.8)}}\) (asimptote \(138.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,968$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,712$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,210.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(21,210.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,004$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,584$ on 2020-07-11