Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $264,184$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(673 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,585,432.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 159.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,585,432.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,971$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(60.2 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,899.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 96.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,899.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $132,498$ on 2020-07-11

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,968$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(503 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,167.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,167.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $223$ on 2020-07-11

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,158$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,838.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103,838.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,769$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(91.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,553.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53,513$ on 2020-07-11

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(94.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,820.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,820.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.37 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(128.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-11

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,971$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(302 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,114.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,114.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $189$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(11.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{491.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(491.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,167$ on 2020-07-11

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,623$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,392.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,392.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(0.268 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $856$ on 2020-07-11

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,275$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(38.8 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,753.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,753.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 73.8)}}\) (asimptote \(138.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,968$ on 2020-07-11

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,712$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,210.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(21,210.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,004$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,584$ on 2020-07-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Ghana recovered 50%
Morocco recovered 24%
Somalia recovered 13%
Sudan recovered 10%

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,248$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(933 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,813.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 111.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,813.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $135$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 140.4)}}\) (asimptote \(606.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,282$ on 2020-07-11

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,542$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,958.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(19,958.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $245$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(93.7 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 23.6)}}\) (asimptote \(214.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,232$ on 2020-07-11

Somalia⮸

Population $15,893,222$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,051$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(594 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,107.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $92$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(28.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(91.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,695$ on 2020-07-11

Sudan⮸

Population $43,849,260$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,250$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,482.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,482.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $650$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(59.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{658.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(658.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,259$ on 2020-07-11